| Item type | Location | Call number | Copy | Status | Date due |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Documento de trabalho |
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão ISEG (iseg) | Serial 155//25633 (Browse shelf) | 1 | Sem empréstimo |
In this paper, we compute conditional measures of lead-lag relationships between GDP growth and industry-level cash-flow growth in the US. Our results show that firms in leading industries pay an average annualized return 4% higher than that of firms in lagging industries. Using both time series and cross sectional tests, we estimate an annual timing premium ranging from 1.5% to 2%. This finding can be rationalized in a model in which (a) agents price growth news shocks, and (b) leading industries provide valuable resolution of uncertainty about the growth prospects of lagging industries.
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