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The leading premium

by Croce, M. Max
Authors: Marchuk, Tatyana | Schlag, Christian Series: NBER working paper series . 25633 Published by : NBER (Cambridge) Physical details: 69 p. Subject(s): Indústria | Projetos de investimento | Mercado financeiro | Rendimento do investimento | Inflação | Modelos Year: 2019
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Documento de trabalho Documento de trabalho Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
ISEG (iseg)
Serial 155//25633 (Browse shelf) 1 Sem empréstimo

In this paper, we compute conditional measures of lead-lag relationships between GDP growth and industry-level cash-flow growth in the US. Our results show that firms in leading industries pay an average annualized return 4% higher than that of firms in lagging industries. Using both time series and cross sectional tests, we estimate an annual timing premium ranging from 1.5% to 2%. This finding can be rationalized in a model in which (a) agents price growth news shocks, and (b) leading industries provide valuable resolution of uncertainty about the growth prospects of lagging industries.

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